Introduction
This article has placed its focus on one of the most seasonal trends in behavior that is vigorously and has created social problems and that is the seasonal changes in crime rate. As early as the nineteenth century, there was the suggestion that crimes rates are affected by seasonal weather patterns after researchers made observations of such a relationship obtained from data in France. There has been a focus on testing the theoretical predictions of two major explanations for seasonal changes in crime rates in the United States of America.
Bauer (2004). This has been conducted in major communities in the United States with the purpose of analyzing two theories that is the temperature/aggression theory and the routine activities theory. These are the two theories that have been used for the purposes of explaining the seasonal fluctuations in crime in the United States of America. The two theories share the same notion that temperature is associated with crime rates but differs on how or the manner in which temperature causes the fluctuations in crime rates.
It is the prediction of the temperature/aggression theory that the inconsistency and unevenness in temperature is what influences the seasonal changes in crime rates where areas with hotter climates being the most affected. On the other hand, the routine activities theory is of the view that the variability in temperature leads to the most seasonal variability in both property and violent crime rates which occurs in areas with climates that are moderate.
Temperature aggression theory
The temperature/ aggression theory was the earliest justification for the noted frequency of seasonal crime changes. It is the suggestion of this theory that areas with hot temperatures cause discomfort to the individuals in those areas and this consequently results to increased aggressiveness by some of those individuals. Since this theory has its focus on the manner in which discomfort occurs on a psychological level, it has been the view of researchers that both hot and cols temperatures should result increased discomfort hence more aggression. Most of the studies that have been conducted to produce evidence of the temperature/ aggression theory have developed linkages between crime rates and temperature. For example, some of the studies that support the temperature/ aggression theory use data that is collected from Houston and Chicago evidence that has revealed linear trends between temperature and violent crime but nor association between temperature and property crime.
The generalizability of results from such studies is however limited as the studies are only focused on particular cities. Literature review conducted has revealed that most of the studies conducted by researchers do not consider a large number of communities at a single instance hence resulting to inconsistent findings. Some of the results of the studies that have been conducted are in tandem with the temperature/ aggression theory, but are mostly based on simple tests of linear relationship that exists between temperature and violent crime.
Routine activities theory
The routine activities theory is in contrast with the temperature/aggression theory and is of the perception that seasonal differences in crime rates are not as a result of increased aggression by the individuals, but rather due to behavioral patterns that have been altered. Various elements must take place within the same time and space, for there to be crime according to the routine activities theory. The elements include; an offender, the lack or absence of guardians and an appropriate target.
The temperature view can only influence the occurrence of crime in determining whether the elements take place. For example, when it is extremely cold, it is most likely that most of the people will convene in their homes. This therefore means that the number of targets is reduced since conducting burglary would be more difficult as there are people in the homes. It would also mean that there would be reduced incidences of assault and robbery as individuals are not outdoors hence providing minimal potential targets.
The routine activities theory does not put all of its emphasis on temperature as the sole determinant of seasonal crime changes. It therefore only views temperature as one of the factors that influence the usual behavior patterns of individuals in a society. The theory has major implications for the seasonal variations that are present in crime rates as a result of the changes in social patterns. Some of the researchers have pointed out that vacations usually take place during the hotter seasons and this therefore leaves the homesteads prone to burglary. Since individuals are out doors the therefore face more risks of being attacked and assaulted. It is therefore the assumption and conclusion of this theory that the more individuals spend time out doors, the more they make it possible for there to be increased incidents of criminal activity.
Contrasting the theories
The article looked at some of the studies that attributed seasonal changes in crime to increased aggression whereas others attributed the seasonal changes in crime to variations in time that is spent outdoors. These differentiated conclusions can be used to arrive to the view that patterns in climate in a society could be of use in determining which of the theories is at work. As each of the theories is of the suggestion that there exists a positive relationship between seasonal temperature variations and changes in crime rates, a keen evaluation of the two theories reveals that they have differences in their predictions. While the temperature/ aggression theory is of the perception that hotter climate in the summer leads to greater aggression which in turn results to increased violent crime rates, the routine activities theory suggest that the adjusted behavior patterns lead to seasonal relationships in both property and violent crime.
Hypotheses
Various hypotheses were developed in this study. The first hypothesis is where the routine activities theory is of the prediction that there would be a positive seasonal effect for the property crime rate whereas there temperature aggression theory is of the prediction that there would be no seasonal effect for property crime rates. In the second hypothesis, the impact of seasonal differences in temperature on crime rates would depend on the average climate of the community. The temperature/aggression theory is therefore of the view that temperature differences would lead to the greatest changes in seasonal violent crime rates in the regions with hotter climates. On the other hand, the routine activities theory predicts that the variability in temperature would lead to increased levels of both violent and property crime rates in regions with moderate climates.
In the third hypothesis the temperature/aggression theory perceives that regions that have high population density would have greater seasonal fluctuations in violent crime rates. The routine activities theory is of the perception that areas that have more recreations facilities and amusement parks would have more risks of having criminal deeds. The forth hypothesis has the routine activities theory perceive that regions with that have greater numbers of entertainment establishments would have higher rates of crime annually and would have higher seasonal fluctuations in crime rates.
Crime data
The data that was used in the study has a combination of information resulting from various sources. The crime data were got from the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) that covered the years 1990-1992 and was obtained from the National Archive of Criminal Justice data website from the United States Department of Justice 2000. These data is collected from the police units in America by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and covers a total population of 96% in America. The data from the UCR includes monthly data that is collected according to the frequency of the occurrences of the common types of crimes that are defined by the FBI. The study then combined data that was from crimes such as robbery, murder, assault, motor vehicle theft, larceny and burglary.
Findings
After conducting the study there were various conclusions that were arrived at for the four hypotheses. The first hypothesis was where the routine activities theory had the prediction that there would be positive seasonal effects for the property crime rate whereas the temperature/aggression theory had the prediction that there would no be seasonal effect for property crime rates. The experimental results from the study strongly sided with the routine activities theory and strongly opposed the temperature/aggression theory. The second hypothesis was where there would be an effect of seasonal differences in temperature on the levels of crime rates would depend on the average climate in the community. There was evidence that supported the routine activities theory.
The third hypothesis where the temperature/aggression theory suggested that regions with high are densely populated would experience higher seasonal fluctuations in violent crimes had no evidence that supported the hypothesis. Contrary to the hypothesis the study had results that revealed that regions that were highly populated had negative effects on seasonal fluctuations in both violent and property crime rates. There was evidence supporting the forth hypothesis which had the notion that regions that had greater number of entertainment establishments would have higher annual rates of crime and would result to higher seasonal differences in crime rates.
With regard to violent crime, the temperature/aggression theory has the prediction that states that experience the hottest summers should have the greatest seasonal differences in crime rates whereas the routine activities theory is of the prediction that states that have cooler climates would have grater variations. The results from the study provided various conclusions. Of the four states that have the highest seasonal fluctuations in violent crime rates two were states that had hot summers while the other two were states that had mild summers and cold winters.
The study has shown substantial support for the routine activities theory but does not necessarily mean that the temperature/ aggression theory has no merit. There was some evidence that temperature that increase during the summer in the hottest regions increases the level of crime rates in those regions. The study also noted that studies that had been conducted earlier and found a seasonal pattern for disturbances in families was in tandem with the temperature/aggression theory and inconsistent with the routine activities theory. The conclusion of the study is that the temperature/aggression theory may have some value in explanation of violent crime but most of the findings of the study, with regard to both violent and property crime are attributed to the routine activities theory.
Limitations
The model used in the study took what would be considered as an approach that relied on contemporaneous data for the purposes of predicting a trajectory model. It is however common for studies to use temporally prior variables that are used for the purposes of predicting the outcome of interest. In normal circumstances, the use of contemporaneous data would bar the study from creating fundamental deductions. It is however possible to use the model that was applied in the study to develop a link between weather and the patterns in crime and can further lead to fundamental claims.
Conclusion
I would the term the article as one that is comprised of detailed information about the seasonal changes in crime and that which has effectively analyzed the two theories in discussion. The article has been able to incorporate the views and perceptions of other researchers with regard to the theories of temperature/aggression and routine activities. After review of other works about the theories the article has covered the theories by use of real data from various agencies in the United States of America and therefore the information provided can be termed as reliable and viable.
Reference:
Bauer, Daniel J.; Curran, Patrick J.; Hipp, John R. Crimes of Opportunity or Crimes of Emotion? Testing Two Explanations of Seasonal Change in Crime (2004).
